my country's renewable energy development path during the 13th Five-Year Plan pe

Release Time:2017.04.22 View:Times



  my country's development of renewable energy is primarily driven by the need to ensure energy security and promote sustainable economic and social development. With economic and social development, renewable energy has been given new missions such as energy conservation and emission reduction, greenhouse gas emission control, and air pollution prevention. In particular, the inclusion of the "Blue Sky Protection Campaign" in the 2017 Government Work Report further illustrates that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and beyond, renewable energy development will be given greater importance, and its share in my country's energy system will further increase. Below, I will discuss my understanding and views on the ideas and goals of the 13th Five-Year Plan for hydropower and new energy development, as well as the key tasks, guarantee policies, and measures for renewable energy development.


Energy Development Situation during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period


  Global Climate Change and New Energy Development Situation. Looking at the global energy structure in 2015, coal accounted for less than 30% of global energy consumption, with oil and natural gas dominating. However, in countries including China, India, and South Africa, coal consumption accounted for approximately 60% or more of primary energy consumption. An excessively high proportion of coal in the energy structure will lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions and worsened air pollution.


  my country's Energy Economic Development Situation. The 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development clearly states that by 2020, total energy consumption should be controlled within 5 billion tons of standard coal equivalent, and total coal consumption should be controlled within 4.1 billion tons. As my country's economic development enters a new normal, the average annual growth rate of total energy consumption during the 13th Five-Year Plan period will decrease by 1.1 percentage points compared to the 12th Five-Year Plan period, reaching approximately 2.5%. Based on the current 5.9 trillion kilowatt-hours, total electricity consumption is projected to reach approximately 6.8 to 7.2 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2020, about 0.8 trillion kilowatt-hours lower than the initial forecast. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the entire energy structure will also be adjusted accordingly, with coal remaining my country's basic energy source, and non-fossil energy and natural gas being the main sources of incremental growth.


 

Current Status and Major Problems of Renewable Energy Development


  Developing renewable energy is a crucial global energy development direction. Both developed and developing countries regard hydropower, wind power, and solar power as important means to address the dual challenges of energy security and climate change. The Chinese government attaches great importance to renewable energy development, setting ambitious goals of achieving 15% of total energy consumption from non-fossil energy sources by 2020 and 20% by 2030. Major countries worldwide have also proposed high-proportion renewable energy development visions for 2050.


The Foundation of Renewable Energy Development


  Firstly, my country possesses abundant renewable energy resources. Hydropower technology development potential is 660 million kilowatts, but only 30% was developed by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan period; wind power technology development potential is 10.2 billion kilowatts, with 150 million kilowatts currently developed; and as of the end of 2016, my country's solar power generation was 66.2 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for only 0.16 ten-thousandths of reserves. While the development volume of renewable energy cannot be directly compared to coal and oil, data shows that my country has abundant renewable energy resources, but the current development level is low, indicating broad development prospects.


  Second, the scale of renewable energy development and construction has gradually expanded. By the end of 2016, China's installed hydropower capacity reached 330 million kilowatts, including 305.42 million kilowatts of conventional hydropower stations and 26.69 million kilowatts of pumped storage, ranking first in the world. Wind power grid-connected capacity has led the world for seven consecutive years. By the end of 2016, China's grid-connected wind power capacity reached 149 million kilowatts, with an annual power generation of 241 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 4 percentage points of the total electricity consumption. Since 2013, my country's solar energy industry has become the world's largest market for new photovoltaic applications, ranking first in the world for two consecutive years in 2015 and 2016. In 2016, the national grid-connected photovoltaic capacity increased to 78.18 million kilowatts from 43 million kilowatts in 2015, with a power generation of over 60 billion kilowatt-hours, and the solar thermal utilization area exceeded 400 million square meters. In addition, the scale of biomass energy utilization reached 35 million tons of standard coal equivalent, placing China among the world's leading countries in development and construction.


  Third, renewable energy technologies are maturing rapidly. In hydropower, the world's highest 300-meter-high concrete double-curvature arch dam has been built; in wind power, 1.5-5 MW wind turbines are already in mass production; and in photovoltaics, relying on national photovoltaic demonstration bases, the advanced indicators of photovoltaic products are being improved. Furthermore, effective demonstrations have been conducted in energy storage technology, multi-energy complementarity technology, and microgrids to develop new energy sources. From these perspectives, my country's manufacturing capacity in hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaic industries has ranked first in the world, and it is moving from a "manufacturing giant" to a "manufacturing powerhouse."


  Fourth, the renewable energy industry system is gradually improving. The state has promulgated the Renewable Energy Law and a series of supporting policies, established standardization committees in the fields of hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaics, and promoted the construction of a standard system. Certification, construction, and surveying capabilities are continuously strengthening, supporting the large-scale development of hydropower, new energy, and other industries.


  Fifth, the economic viability of renewable energy is continuously improving. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, new energy sources, represented by photovoltaics, saw the fastest cost reduction and the most significant improvement in economic viability. The cost per kilowatt of photovoltaic power generation was around 20,000 yuan in 2010, dropping to around 11,000 yuan in 2012, and currently to around 7,000 yuan. The feed-in tariff has decreased from the initial 1 yuan to the current 0.6-0.8 yuan/kWh, significantly improving its economic viability.